Live updates: Bitcoin reverses big early gains following soft U.S. jobs data

Bitcoin spiked and then gave back much of its advance on Friday, Oct. 2, 2026, after a weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report reshaped expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by just 29,000 positions in September, well short of consensus estimates that ranged from roughly 84,000 to 90,000 depending on the survey. The unemployment rate, which most economists had expected to hold steady, instead rose to 4.2%. Revisions compounded the weak headline: the prior two months were revised down by about 60,000 jobs combined, with August cut from 162,000 to 133,000 after initially beating expectations on release. Wage growth also came in below forecasts.

Bitcoin, which had been trading near $86,000 in the hours before the release, climbed quickly after the data crossed the wires. Reported intraday highs clustered around the $87,000 to $87,250 area, with one data provider citing a daily high of $87,173 and a 24-hour range between roughly $84,068 and $87,086. The move represented a gain of roughly 2% to 3% on the day at its peak. CoinDesk, however, reported that bitcoin reversed a large portion of those early gains later in the session, retreating toward $85,500, while bond yields staged a major whipsaw of their own, turning higher in the afternoon after declining earlier in the day.

The repricing in rate expectations was the clearest market reaction. Futures markets had already trimmed the odds of an additional Federal Reserve rate increase in October to around 25% early Friday, following dovish public remarks earlier in the week from Fed officials John Williams and Philip Jefferson. After the payrolls release, those odds dropped further, to roughly 13% to 14%, according to figures cited by CoinDesk and other outlets. Earlier in the week, the implied probability had sat near 70%. The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.

The backdrop is unusual in that markets have been weighing the possibility of further tightening rather than cuts, with inflation described in reporting as still elevated. A softer labor market reading reduces one of the pressure points policymakers have been monitoring, though officials have signalled that inflation data remains central to the decision. For bitcoin, higher borrowing costs and rising Treasury yields have been a recurring headwind in recent weeks, which is why yield moves have tracked closely alongside crypto price action.

Analysts quoted in coverage of the session pointed to familiar technical levels rather than directional certainty. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the weaker jobs print could help bitcoin clear $87,000, a level that has capped the cryptocurrency for much of the year, and identified $90,000 as the next area of interest after the break above $86,000 resistance. On the downside, crypto.news flagged $82,000 as a level market participants were watching. Bitcoin's September high was reported at $87,354, meaning Friday's spike fell just short of a new multi-month peak before sellers stepped in.

Broader market measures moved modestly higher alongside bitcoin. The total crypto market capitalization was cited at roughly $2.99 trillion to $3 trillion, up about 1% over 24 hours. U.S. equities also gained at the Wall Street open as traders scaled back hawkish bets.

The session underscores how closely crypto prices continue to track macroeconomic data releases and interest rate expectations. It also illustrates how quickly initial reactions can fade: the same report that pushed bitcoin above $87,000 in morning trading was followed within hours by a partial reversal as yields reversed course. Nothing in a single data print determines future price direction, and the October Fed meeting, along with upcoming inflation readings, remains the next scheduled catalyst traders have flagged.

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