Gold dives below $4,100 as blowout NFP underpins Fed hike odds

Gold prices slipped on Friday, November 6, 2026, after a US jobs report came in far stronger than economists expected. The data pushed up expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again at its December meeting, according to FXStreet.

FXStreet reported that the October nonfarm payrolls figure reached 165,000, well above a forecast of 65,000. The unemployment rate dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, as employers added jobs across a broad range of sectors. Gold retreated after peaking at $4,106 and fell by nearly 1% on the day. FXStreet said it traded around $4,060 at the time of writing. The metal had reached a weekly high of $4,146 on Thursday.

Investing.com gave a similar picture in a report carried by Yahoo Finance. At 16:43 ET (21:43 GMT), spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,065.44 an ounce, and gold futures were down 0.9% at $4,074.75. Investing.com described the move as happening alongside a stronger dollar. It said the strong report suggested the labor market remained very robust while inflation ran well above the Fed's 2% long-term target. It added that the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and that policymakers indicated sticky inflation was likely to prompt more hikes.

Market pricing shifted after the release. FXStreet cited the CME FedWatch Tool as showing the odds of a December hike rising from 67% on Thursday to 77%. FXStreet's headline noted that the US Dollar Index had reclaimed the 102.00 level. Finimize reported slightly different figures, with the implied odds of a December hike rising to 81% from 72.8% before the release. The difference probably reflects the timing of the readings. Finimize also reported that the dollar and 10-year Treasury yields rose after the data.

Gold is sensitive to these moves because it pays no interest. Higher Treasury yields make holding bullion less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Finimize said spot gold slid to about $4,033 at one point during the session before recovering toward $4,074. It also noted that gold's October 30 low near $3,869 was a level market participants were watching.

Not every analyst saw the report as a major change. Investing.com quoted Clark Bellin, president and chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth. He said the report by itself was unlikely to change the Fed's rate calculus for now, and that he still expected a December hike. He described the data as a relief because the labor market could still produce jobs in an elevated interest rate environment.

Investing.com also noted that crude oil prices had fallen sharply during the week, which supported gold's weekly advance. Despite Friday's decline, gold was still higher over the week as a whole.

Looking ahead, FXStreet said US consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data, along with comments from Fed officials, were on the radar. It noted that bets on further Fed tightening remained supported. The data will give markets more information about inflation and about how policymakers may respond at the December meeting.

This article is for information only. It is not investment advice, and market moves can reverse quickly. Neither the data nor the probabilities cited here guarantee any future price movement.

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