Why Spreads Widen Around Major News Releases

Why Spreads Widen Around Major News Releases

If you have ever watched a currency pair or gold quote in the moments around a major economic release, you may have noticed the gap between the buy price and the sell price suddenly stretch. A spread that normally sits tight can briefly become several times wider, then settle back down once the dust clears. This is not a glitch, and it is not unique to any one venue. It is a direct reflection of how prices are made in a decentralised market.

Every quote you see has two sides. The bid is the price at which someone is currently willing to buy from you, and the ask is the price at which someone is willing to sell to you. The difference between them is the spread, and it is the compensation taken by whoever is standing on the other side of your trade. Those counterparties are typically banks, market makers and other liquidity providers who continuously post two-sided prices. They do not know which way the market will move next; they earn from the spread and from managing the inventory they accumulate.

That business model works well when the flow is balanced and the next few seconds are reasonably predictable. A major news release destroys both conditions at once. Before a central bank rate decision or a headline inflation or employment figure, nobody knows the number. The instant it prints, the fair value of a currency can shift meaningfully, and everyone wants to trade in the same direction at the same moment. A liquidity provider who fills a large buy order a fraction of a second before the market jumps higher is left holding a losing position it cannot easily offload.

The rational response to that risk is to widen the quote. By pulling the bid lower and pushing the ask higher, a provider is saying: I will still trade with you, but only at a price that compensates me for the uncertainty. Many providers go further and temporarily reduce the size they are willing to quote, or step back from quoting altogether for a few seconds. When several of them do this simultaneously, the order book thins out. The remaining prices sit further apart, and the spread you see on your screen widens as a result.

There is a second effect that compounds the first. In a thin book, each individual trade moves the price further because there is less resting volume to absorb it. This is why price can travel in sharp steps rather than smoothly during a release, and why orders can fill at a worse level than the one displayed when they were sent. That difference is called slippage, and it is a separate phenomenon from the spread, though the two tend to appear together.

Gold behaves in much the same way, since XAU/USD is heavily influenced by United States interest rate expectations. Data that shifts the outlook for US rates and the dollar tends to show up immediately in gold quotes, and gold spreads can widen noticeably around those moments. The same logic applies at thin times of day, such as the gap between the New York close and the Asian open, when fewer participants are active.

For a trader, the practical consequences are worth understanding before they are experienced. A wider spread raises the cost of entering and exiting, because you cross it both ways. A trade that looks marginally profitable under normal conditions may not be once the spread has tripled. Orders already in the market are affected too: a stop-loss is generally triggered by the relevant side of the quote, which means an unusually wide spread can reach a stop even if the mid-price has not travelled as far as you assumed. Pending entry orders can fill at unexpected levels for the same reason.

None of this makes news periods unusable, but it does mean position size and order placement deserve more thought around them. Smaller size reduces the monetary impact of an adverse move. Stops placed too close to entry are more likely to be caught by noise rather than by a genuine change in direction. And if you are trading on margin, remember that borrowed exposure magnifies losses just as much as gains, and that fast, thin markets are exactly when that asymmetry bites hardest.

An economic calendar will tell you when the scheduled releases are due, and that information alone is useful context for interpreting what you see on the chart. Unscheduled events, of course, give no warning at all, which is one reason spreads are never fixed in advance.

Follow EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and XAU/USD on Puqet: WOZILA, our forex & gold signal service, publishes trade ideas with a stated entry, stop-loss and take-profit, and explains how each one is tracked.

This article is for general education only — not financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any currency or metal. Trading forex and gold carries a high risk of loss; leverage magnifies losses as well as gains, and many retail traders lose money. Always do your own research before making a financial decision.